‘The Third Jihad’ Producers Reply to NYT Crusade Against Film

If the New York Times and Associated ‘with terrorists’ Press put as much effort into exposing Hamas-linked CAIR and other radical Islamic groups in the U.S. as they are into blackballing the NYPD, much of this problem would disappear. via ‘The Third Jihad’ Producers Reply to New York Times Articles – MarketWatch.

NEW YORK, January 25, 2012 /PRNewswire via COMTEX/ — The New York Times has sharply criticized the New York Police Department for using the critically-acclaimed documentary The Third Jihad: Radical Islam’s Vision for America in counterterrorism training.

The New York Times has published two news articles ( http://tinyurl.com/nyt-ttj1 , http://tinyurl.com/nyt-ttj2 ), as well as an editorial entitled “Hateful Film” ( http://tinyurl.com/nyt-ttj3 ) in the past 48 hours.

In response, film producer Raphael Shore has issued the following statement:

“We regret that the film has been taken out of the counterterrorism training program of the NYPD. The New York Times stories are proof positive that the Clarion Fund’s high-quality and impactful documentaries touch very sensitive nerves.

“Those that have blasted the film are attempting to stifle an important debate about the internal state of the Muslim community in America, and whether politicized Islam and indoctrination pose tangible security threats.

“We hope that individuals will acknowledge the inaccuracies presented by the New York Times, and the effects that organizations like CAIR have on the fine line between political correctness and honest debate.

“We invite the general public to watch and judge the documentary for themselves. The Third Jihad is now being made available for free viewing online at http://www.thethirdjihad.com .”

According to the New York Times, nearly 1500 officers, “from lieutenants to detectives to patrol officers” reportedly were shown the film during a period of between three months and a year.

The story of the film’s usage by NYPD was first reported by the Village Voice a year earlier, and police stopped using the film when pressure was asserted by local Islamic organizations. Pressure continued until the New York Times propelled the year-old story to front-page news yesterday.

CAIR is taking credit for the “investigation” which led to the New York Times’ coverage, with a press release ( http://tinyurl.com/nypd-cair ) demanding that the NYPD install Muslim-sensitive materials in their training curriculum to offset what they consider to be an ‘Islamaphobic’ film.

What CAIR and the New York Times failed to clearly address, is that The Third Jihad is narrated by a devout Muslim, who has a significant record of serving the United States of America, as a medical officer in the US Navy and as an attending physician to the US Congress.

The beginning of the film states in bold letters that, “This is not a film about Islam. It is about the threat of radical Islam. Only a small percentage of the world’s 1.3 billion Muslims are radical.”

The film’s message urges the Muslim community to look within itself to root out the indoctrination that affects a minority of Muslims.

The documentary is founded on credible evidence presented by the FBI of a “Manifesto” published by radicals calling for the implementation of extremist ideology – both violent and politicized – within the United States.

It is no surprise that CAIR does not like the content of the film. CAIR is singled out in the film for its direct ties to the Muslim Brotherhood, open support for Hamas, and links to terror financing.

CAIR was listed as an unindicted co-conspirator in the 2007 Holy Land Foundation trial, the largest ever terror-financing trial in US History.

As a result of these designations, the FBI has formally ceased all ties with CAIR – as should the NYPD and New York Times.

The NYPD is well aware of the threats that emanate from Islamic radicals.

In the preface to a landmark 2007 NYPD Intelligence Division Report entitled “Radicalization in the West: The Homegrown Threat,” Police Commissioner Raymond Kelly writes, “New York City continues to be the one of the top targets of terrorists worldwide. Consequently, the NYPD places a priority on understanding what drives and defines the radicalization process.”

The Third Jihad takes an in-depth look at the process of radicalization and indoctrination taking place on American soil.

It is clear that senior members of the NYPD saw value in the film, as did employees of the Federal Homeland Security department, who first gave the DVD of the film to the NYPD.

The Third Jihad features exclusive interviews with some of the nation’s leading counterterrorism experts including former Director of Homeland Security Tom Ridge, former Director of Central Intelligence R. James Woolsey, former NYC Mayor Rudolph Giuliani, and NYPD Commissioner Raymond Kelly.

According to the New York Times, Paul J. Browne, the Police Department’s chief spokesman said, “that filmmakers had lifted the [Kelly] clip from an old interview.”

This is the first of several inaccuracies to appear in the New York Times’ account.

The makers of The Third Jihad conducted a nearly 90-minute exclusive interview with Commissioner Kelly specifically for the film on March 19, 2007. Previously unreleased bonus clips of Kelly’s interview are currently available at http://www.thethirdjihad.com .

Responding to a letter by film producer Raphael Shore, Browne then corrected the record in the New York Times follow-up article. “I recommended in February 2007 that Commissioner Kelly be interviewed,” he said.

Browne recalled that the film’s interviewer, “asked to speak to the commissioner for a cable film on ‘foiled terrorist plots and the current threat matrix.’”

Several other inaccuracies appear in the article. For example, the New York Times notes that the film includes a doctored photo of the White House with an Islamic flag atop. But the photo is one of many pieces of documented footage from Islamist sources. Yet the New York Times implies that the filmmakers were the ones to manipulate the photo.

The New York Times also inaccurately quotes the film by stating: “‘This is the true agenda of Islam in America,’ a narrator intones.” But the actual quote from the film is: “This document shows the true agenda of much of Muslim leadership here in America.”

The article intentionally omits that this narrator is Dr. Zuhdi Jasser, a devout Muslim.

The rest of the New York Times’ coverage focuses on character assassination. While CAIR and others label the film Islamophobic, it is ironic that the film’s detractors continuously point out that the film’s producer has ties to Jewish organizations. The article inaccurately claims that Raphael Shore simultaneously works for Aish HaTorah.

New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg questioned the judgment of that those who permitted the usage of the film. However, Bloomberg’s predecessor Mayor Rudolph Giuliani, who is also interviewed in the film, has praised the documentary calling The Third Jihad, “a wake up call for America.”

See the expose of CAIR in one of our older posts: CAIR: A scene from the Third Jihad

All American Muslims in Dearborn Heights Arrested for Assault on Christian Quarterback

David Wood at Answering Muslims asks, “Could you imagine the media uproar if four Christian players had given a Muslim quarterback a concussion?” via Muslim Football Players in Dearborn Heights Arrested for Assault on Christian Quarterback.

DEARBORN HEIGHTS — A figurative beat down turned literal beating has led to the felony arrests of a group of local high school football players.

Police arrested four Star International Academy seniors Wednesday on aggravated assault charges stemming from an altercation in the team’s last game of the season.

The players — Mohamed Ahmed, Fanar Al-Alsady, Hadee Attia and Ali Bajjey, all age 17 — are accused of gang-beating Lutheran Westland’s quarterback as time expired in Lutheran’s 47-6 drubbing of Star on Oct. 21.

According to numerous witness statements gathered by police, Lutheran’s quarterback was set to take a knee to run out the clock. Before the snap, referees told both teams to refrain from contact, police said.

After the snap, however, the four arrested Star players burst through the line and allegedly manhandled Lutheran’s quarterback. Police said they ripped off his helmet, threw him to the ground and punched and kicked him repeatedly. The incident came to an end after coaches, players and refs stepped in and broke it up.

Police took a statement from a referee who said he heard a Star player say to hit the referees after being directed to not hit the other team.

According to published reports, Lutheran’s quarterback suffered a concussion from the beating. (Source)

Anyone want to take wagers that these Islamo-thugs will walk? Terror-linked CAIR is already pulling the feeble race card in their defense.

Bomb threat delays Muslim ‘honor killing’ trial in Canada (video)

via Shafia trial delayed by bomb threat.

KINGSTON, Ont. — Police say “security concerns” prompted the sudden evacuation of the courthouse where the Shafia murder trial is underway, about 20 minutes before closing arguments were set to resume Thursday morning.

Staff Sgt. Chris Scott, the officer who headed the Shafia investigation, shouted into the upper lobby at 9:40 a.m., telling people to leave the building immediately. At the time, more than 100 people and about two dozen journalists were lined up, waiting to get into the courtroom.

Scott did not give any indication about the nature of the problem but lawyers leaving the court house said building staff told them a bomb threat had been made.

About 45 minutes after the evacuation began, an officer met with reporters.

“We have some security concerns that have come to light this morning here at the courthouse and as it stands now the court will be closed until at least 1 p.m. and at which time we will re-evaluate whether or not the court will be open for the rest of the day,” said Kingston Police Staff Sgt. Bill Kennedy.

The trial was expected to resume Thursday afternoon.

Kennedy would not provide any more information about the nature of the concern and he would not say what was being done inside the building. He would not say if the concern was related to the Shafia trial.

Kingston Police tactical officers, a canine unit and a number of uniformed officers swarmed over the building during the evacuation, as everyone inside, including lawyers and judges, were herded out onto the front lawn of the two-storey stone building.

During the evacuation, Mohammad Shafia, 58, his second wife Tooba Mohammad Yahya, 42, and their son Hamed, 21, were escorted out of the building by police and driven away from the property in a prisoner van.

The trio each pleaded not guilty to four counts of first-degree murder.

Sisters Zainab Shafia, 19, Sahar, 17, and Geeti, 13, and Rona Amir Mohammad, 52, who was Shafia’s first wife in the polygamous family, were found dead on June 30, 2009, inside a car submerged in a shallow canal in Kingston. They had drowned. Investigators could not determine where and how the victims drowned.

Prosecutors allege the victims died in an honour killing, arranged by Shafia, because he believed his daughters had shamed him by dressing in revealing clothes and consorting with boys. Mohammad supported the three girls and wanted a divorce, jurors have heard.

A recent CNN report that refers to this as an Afghan issue, not an Islamic one. h/t Philly:

Guyana: Muslim scholar in boy-sex scandal re-arrested after more victims come forward

via Muslim scholar in boy-sex scandal re-arrested after more victims come forward | Latest.

The Muslim scholar was Tuesday re-arrested after five more boys alleged that he sexually assaulted them, police said.

East Coast Demerara Divisional Commander, Assistant Commissioner David Ramnarine confirmed that a total of nine boys including four brothers have leveled the accusations against the Mufti.

“The eminent scholar has been arrested after five more boys came forward and made allegations against him,” he told Demerara Waves Online News (www.demwaves.com).

Earlier Tuesday, Police Chief of Criminal Investigations, Assistant Commissioner, Seelall Persaud had confirmed that medical examinations conducted on one of two boys at that time had confirmed that he was anally sexed.

Up to late Tuesday, police did not divulge details about whether the three others were similarly sexually assaulted.

The scandal broke last week when the mother of four sons was approached by an official of the Child Care and Protection Agency (CPA) and told of the allegations against the Mufti.

The alleged instances of sexual assault took place at a Mosque based in Section D, Turkeyen between December 2011 and January 2012.

Prior to the Mufti’s arrest, he had been placed on GUY$150,000 station bail and asked to report periodically.

He has been sent on leave pending the outcome of the investigation and prosecution.

Police are yet to dispatch a file to the Director of Public Prosecutions (DPP) for advice. Authorities have 45 days within which to compile evidence before seeking a committal before a magistrate.

Earlier Tuesday, the rights organisation- Red Thread- picketed the Ministry of Human Services, urging that swift action be taken against the accused. The organisation is worried that the man could tamper with the victims, their parents or other associates.

Muslims plan to sue county after judge dismisses charges in Rye Playland melee

There is a silent, separate rule of law for Muslims being established in the U.S.  Represented by a radical Muslim lawyer these troublemakers will now sue the county. Is this a case for the American Freedom Law Center? via Playland melee charges set for dismissal in deal | The Journal News

RYE — Dalia Nazzal is glad that a dark chapter of her life is finally over.

Almost five months after a full-blown melee at Playland Amusement Park, the Spring Valley resident, an 18-year-old freshman at City College in Manhattan, accepted an offer from the government that will wipe out a disorderly-conduct charge lodged against her.

She and her mother, Noor Jaber, were two of 14 Muslim-Americans who accepted adjournments in contemplation of dismissal in Rye City Court on Tuesday. The settlement allows them to maintain their innocence and have the charges against them dismissed if they’re not arrested again before March 20. The 15th defendant in the case was home sick in Brooklyn but is expected to get the same deal, said their lawyer, Lamis Deek.

The group was at Playland on Aug. 30 as part of a Ramadan event sponsored by the Muslim American Society of New York when there was a dispute about the park’s safety policy prohibiting headgear — including traditional Muslim women’s head scarves, known as hijabs — on certain rides.

Nazzal said the incident started as a “miscommunication” and ended in an awful confrontation, with police and park rangers arresting people indiscriminately and even dragging her mother from a paddy wagon.

Being arrested for brawling in a public park and attacking park rangers is not indiscriminate.

“They just attacked and didn’t give anyone a chance to respond,” Nazzal said, calling the authorities’ response unprofessional.

“This was a very hard time,” said Khallel Nazzal, Dalia’s father and Noor’s husband. “All the members of the community are very upset about what has happened. What was really upsetting … was being treated in such an inhumane manner.”

The county’s public safety commissioner, George Longworth, defended the police response at the time, saying the officers had shown “restraint and professionalism” when faced with an increasingly unruly crowd.

Deek said Tuesday that the key to resolving the case was that none of her clients would have to plead guilty in order to have the charges dropped.

“It’s a good offer,” said Deek, who specializes in civil rights cases and injustices against Muslims. She said the defendants plan to file federal civil rights lawsuits against the county as their next step.

Deek said most adjournments in contemplation of dismissal have a six-month window where the defendant has to stay out of trouble, so the fact that her clients got just two months “speaks volumes” about their innocence. Deek also thanked the assistant district attorney assigned to Rye, Valerie Livingston.

“My clients had a bad experience with the (police) officers, but a good experience with the criminal justice system,” Deek said.

She called the scene at Playland “pure chaos” and the arrests “abusive.”

Inside the courtroom, the proceeding was relatively casual. Each suspect was called up, testified that he or she had no prior arrest record, and agreed to Livingston’s terms.

Two of the defendants initially had been charged with felony assault. Livingston downgraded those charges to a harassment violation to allow for the deal.

Nazzal, who was 17 at the time of the melee, said she’s glad it’s now behind her — at least in criminal court.

Judge Joseph Latwin wished them all luck and thanked the defendants, many of whom live in Brooklyn, for coming a long way for the court appearance.

Huh?

N. Carolina Muslims arrested in plot to behead witnesses in recent terror conviction

The headline of this WRAL article says it all. Tiny minority of extremists? Think again. It’s only a matter of time until one of these plots succeeds. via Muslim community rallies after murder plot alleged :: WRAL.com.

Raleigh, N.C. — Dozens of people from the Triangle’s Islamic community plan a show of support in Wilmington on Friday when two people have a federal court hearing on charges that they tried to hire someone to kill witnesses in a terrorism trial.

Federal authorities arrested Shkumbin Sherifi and Nevine Aly Elshiekh over the weekend and charged them with conspiracy to commit murder.

Sherifi’s brother, Hysen Sherifi, was sentenced two weeks ago to 45 years in prison on terrorism charges. He was among seven area men arrested in 2009 after authorities said they plotted attacks on targets overseas, stockpiled weapons and conducted paramilitary training.

Hysen Sherifi met with his brother and Elshiekh several times in recent weeks at the New Hanover County jail, where he is incarcerated, and arranged to have three witnesses who testified during his trial last fall killed, according to a federal court document.

He demanded that the witnesses be beheaded and that pictures be taken of their corpses to prove they had been killed, the court document states. He also wanted a fellow inmate who he thought had tricked him out of some money to be killed.

Authorities said Shkumbin Sherifi and Elshiekh gave someone $5,000 to kill one person.

Elshiekh, 46, has headed the special education program at Sterling Montessori Academy and Charter School in Morrisville for nine years. She is now on leave from the school.

A school representative said the faculty was stunned by her arrest. Her neighbors likewise expressed surprise, calling her a nice and caring person.

She lives with her parents on Edgemont Drive in west Raleigh. Her father is a retired professor from North Carolina State University’s College of Textiles.

46 and lives with her parents?

Julia Sherifi posted on Facebook that her brother is innocent, and she asked people to go to Wilmington in a show of support.

A group called Our Ummah, One Body has signed up more than 80 people for the trip.

More from the Investigative Project on Terrorism, Convicted NC Jihad Cell Member Allegedly Wanted Witnesses Killed.

According to federal authorities, Sherifi asked for help in hiring a hit man to kill several people, including three witnesses who testified against him at his trial and an inmate who allegedly defrauded him of money. But the person he sought help from is a confidential law enforcement informant. Sherifi told the informant that he wanted pictures of the dead bodies and severed heads to warn other potential witnesses not to testify against him.

Details of the “murder-for-hire scheme” were provided in separate affidavits filed against Sherifi’s brother, Shkumbin Sherifi, and Nevine Aly Elshiekh, identified in the documents as Sherifi’s friend. No charges have been filed against Sherifi related to the new plot.

The affidavits allege Elshiekh visited Sherifi several times in his cell. Elshiekh identified herself as “Hysen Sherifi’s friend” and provided the fake hit man the names, addresses, and photos of Sherifi’s intended victims, two of which were witnesses at Sherifi’s federal trial. She also provided $750.00 in cash to the fake hit man, nicknamed “Treetop” or “Tree” in the affidavits.

A Facebook user by the same name links to this Twitter account with some telling Tweets, and a Youtube account that looks like he might have been a Muslim gangster rapper wannabe.

Anyone have time to scan One Ummah’s website? Check out the image and image title they use on their Twitter account – it should be familiar to readers here.

Nigeria: Muslim group has killed 935 since 2009

Considering the group that compiled that number says the West should “get over its aversion to Islamist groups,” that number is probably much higher and soon they’ll be recommending we get over our aversion to Boko Haram. via Rights group: Islamic rebels in Nigeria have killed 935 since 2009 – latimes.com.

Boko Haram, the radical Islamic group in northern Nigeria, has killed 935 people since 2009, the bulk of them in the last year, Human Rights Watch reports.

Last year Boko Haram’s attacks grew more sophisticated and aggressive, with the militants launching suicide bombings and drive-by shootings that killed about 550 people, the rights group said. In the first few week of this year, Boko Haram launched 51 attacks, more than two a day on average, killing 253 people.

U.S. officials fear the group’s change in tactics and increased use of suicide bombers indicates growing links and support with Al Qaeda or its affiliates on the continent.

Its most deadly attack last week in the country’s second-largest city, Kano, killed 185, according to Human Rights Watch. Late Friday the militants launched suicide bombings and other attacks against the police headquarters, security headquarters, three police stations, a police barracks and other government buildings as armed Boko Haram fighters clashed with security officials.

Most of the dead were residents of the northern city; about 34 were security or government officials. Police said that they found 10 vehicles loaded with explosives after Friday’s attacks.

Nigeria is divided between the mainly Muslim north and mainly Christian south. Boko Haram is fighting to impose Sharia law and Islamic education across the entire country, including in predominantly Christian areas. It has targeted Christian churchgoers and church figures in recent attacks.

On Christmas Day, Boko Haram militants bombed a Roman Catholic Church in Madalla, in the northern state of Niger, killing 40 people.

Religion of Peace.

• Pakistani Taliban have killed at least 35,000 since 2007 (mostly Muslims)
• 85% of al Qaeda’s victims are non-Western and predominantly Muslim

‘Strict’ Muslim raped at least 4 women at knifepoint to ‘punish them’

Sharia vigilantism on the streets of London? via Sunny Islam: ‘Strict’ Muslim raped 4 women at knifepoint to ‘punish them’ | Mail Online.

A Muslim man who raped women to ‘teach them a lesson’ for being on the streets at night was jailed indefinitely today because of the danger he poses to women.

Sunny Islam, 23, who comes from a strict Muslim family, dragged his terrified victims – including a 15-year-old – from the street at knifepoint, bound and assaulted them during a two-month reign of terror.

Police fear that Islam may have attacked many more.

Three of the assaults took place close to his home in Barking, east London, while a fourth occurred in nearby Forest Gate.

Judge Patricia Lees, sentencing him to a minimum of 11 years, said: ‘The harm you have done to your victims is incalculable.

‘The nature and extent of these offences drives me to the conclusion that you represent an extreme and continuing danger to women, particularly those out at night.’

He was traced through the number plate of his girlfriend’s car after he kidnapped and raped the 15-year-old in September 2010.

He grabbed her from behind as she walked home with a friend and bundled her into the car at knifepoint before driving to a secluded spot where he raped her twice despite her claiming she was only 11 years old.

Islam, who told the jury he was a practising Muslim, was convicted of seven charges of rape, one of sexual assault and one of kidnap.

Tana Adkin, defending, said: ‘The only piece of mitigation is his age. He was 21 at the time of these offences and comes from something of a strict background.’

His mother, in religious dress, sat with her covered head bowed throughout and wept as her son was jailed.

Judge Lees said: ‘The fact that you have attacked these women not withstanding your background must represent your own wholly warped personality.’

Or he was taught that women out on the streets at night are worthless. War booty even.

After the trial, Det Chief Insp John Sandlin, of the Homicide and Serious Crime Command who investigated the offences, said they believed there may be other victims who had not come forward, but Islam has not been charged with any further offences.

Kansas City: Radical Muslim group begins month-long campaign on sharia

via Twitter / @riyazlareef: ICNA Kansas City begins a ….

All part of their National Sharia Campaign. From their press release:

During this campaign, which runs from Jan 23rd 2012 until Feb 19th 2012, ICNA Kansas City will air messages on Shariah through KMBZ 980 AM (Radio) and post a billboard on Shariah at I-70 and 38th street. The campaign messages are expected to reach over 200K people per week. The messages will invite the public to call 1-855-SHARIAH hotline or visit our website at http://defendingreligiousfreedom.com to learn and ask questions about Shariah and Islam. The visitors to the website and the callers to the hotline can request a free copy of the English translation of the Quran and other free literature on Islam and Shariah.

If anyone has time to review their site and or give them a call, please do so and update us in the comments section. Just a little refresher on ICNA:

ICNA was included on a Muslim Brotherhood document submitted (unopposed) into evidence in the Holy Land Foundation trial titled, “A list of our organizations and the organizations of our friends,” which identified ICNA as an entity or affiliate of the Muslim Brotherhood. Further, ICNA was named by the Department of Justice (DoJ), which prosecuted the case, an unindicted co-conspirator.

via ICNA’s Director of Islamic dawah ads in his own words:

We should use every opportunity presented or created to sensitize non-Muslim peers and school staff with Islam and establish an environment in which every where a non-Muslims turn, they notice Islam portrayed in a positive way and get influenced by it and eventually accept Islam with Allah’s guidance, insha Allah.

…Indeed Islam came to tear down the pillars of kufr and replace them with the pillars of Islam.

Much more:

• ICNA seeks Islamic super-state governed by sharia law
• Muslim Org ICNA Linked to Anti-American Terror Movement
• ICNA Practices Stealth Jihad at at Philadelphia Libraries
• Extremists at MAS-ICNA Christmas convention deliver
• ICNA-MAS Convention features unindicted co-conspirator & Obama advisor
• ICNA-SE web links to terrorist organizations on its homepage

FBI briefed terror-linked CAIR before public in Florida jihad arrest

So says Hizbollah-praising Hasan Shibly of Hamas-linked CAIR via Tampa Tea Party opposes Muslim speaker.

“If we had direct ties to terrorism, I would not have had the U.S. Attorney sitting next to me at the CAIR Florida banquet. I would not have had the mayor sitting next to me. I would not have been briefed by the FBI before it was made public that a suspected terrorist was apprehended in our city,” said Shibly, referring to the recent arrest of alleged terror suspect Sami Osmakac of Pinellas County.

The FBI praised CAIR for its help in the investigation.

First, where did the FBI praise CAIR? They praised the store owner who reported the jihadi who tried to buy an al Qaeda flag. Can anyone find a link, video or audio of the FBI praising CAIR?

Second, the FBI was told to sever formal ties with terror-linked CAIR, so why are they working with the terror-linked group and letting them know about terror arrests when CAIR frequently defends terrorists and it has been reported that CAIR hinders FBI investigations of terrorist suspects and tips off terrorist suspects prior to raids?

We told you back in 2009 that CAIR was still working the FBI, and even a new law doesn’t seem to prevent the FBI from working with the enemy.

Contact Your Elected Officials and demand the FBI abide by the organizational ban and the law.

Forecasting al Qaeda in 2012

Stratfor, the group hacked by Anonymous, puts out this annual report. Interestingly, while they title it the “Jihadism” report, it is almost entirely focused on al Qaeda alone. Like Obama. via Jihadism in 2012: A Persistent, Low-Level Threat | STRATFOR.

Forecast for 2012

We anticipate that the al Qaeda core will continue to struggle in the physical and ideological arenas. The group still has prolific spokesmen in al-Zawahiri, al-Libi and Gadahn, but in 2011 the group issued remarkably few messages. The remaining leaders appear to be lying low following the deaths of bin Laden, al-Rahman and others.

Even though AQAP lost important English-speaking ideological figures when Anwar al-Awlaki and Samir Khan were killed (Khan was the editor of AQAP’s English-language Inspire magazine) the group’s main operational and ideological leadership remain at large. Among this leadership are the group’s emir, Nasir al-Wahayshi, operational commander Qasim al-Raymi, and innovative bombmaker Ibrahim Hassan al-Asiri.

The remaining ideological leaders include the group’s mufti, or religious leader, Saudi-born Ibrahim Suleiman al-Rubaish. With a degree in Islamic law, fighting experience with bin Laden at Tora Bora and time served in Guantanamo Bay, al-Rubaish has impeccable jihadist credentials. The influential head of AQAP’s Shariah Council, a Yemeni imam named Adel bin Abdullah al-Abab, is among AQAP’s ideologues. While AQAP is unlikely to ever recreate what Samir Khan accomplished with Inspire magazine, the group’s al-Malaheim Media is still active, and its Arabic-language offerings continue. Those messages frequently are translated into English on such websites as the Ansar Al-Mujahideen English forum.

Moreover, the English-language statements of al-Awlaki and the editions of Inspire magazine remain on the Internet with a readership that numbers in the thousands. Indeed, an article from the first edition of Inspire, “How to Make a Bomb in the Kitchen of Your Mom,” was linked to thwarted grassroots plots in Texas and New York in 2011. We believe that the threat from grassroots jihadists will persist for the foreseeable future.

We disagree with those who claim that the unrest in the Arab world will end jihadism. The overthrow of the Gadhafi regime in Libya and the democratic movements in Tunisia and Egypt will provide alternative outlets to jihadism for dissent, and other Islamist movements, such as the Muslim Brotherhood, will undercut jihadism ideologically. But the small core of hard-line jihadists will remain undeterred; this group will continue to propagate its ideology and recruit new adherents.

Recruitment will be more difficult in the current environment, and while this may hasten the eventual decline of jihadism, it will not kill the ideology this year. In addition to persisting in such lawless places as Yemen, Somalia and the Afghanistan-Pakistan border, jihadism will maintain its niche in the West, and grassroots jihadists will continue to be radicalized and mobilized in the United States, Europe, Australia and elsewhere.

Regional Forecasts

The United States and Europe

The al Qaeda core and franchise groups will continue to struggle attacking the United States and Europe directly and will continue to reach out to grassroots operatives who have the ability to travel to the West. Otherwise, they will attempt to recruit aspiring jihadists living in the West. This means we will likely see more thwarted or botched plots involving poorly trained operatives and simple attacks like the shooting in Frankfurt. While such attacks can and do kill people, they are not spectacular events as 9/11 and the 2008 Mumbai attacks were. This trend also means that travel to places like Pakistan, Yemen or Somalia, or contact with jihadist planners there, will continue to be an operational weakness that Western intelligence agencies can exploit. Such was the case in Birmingham, England, where 12 suspected plotters were arrested in September and November. Individuals seeking to acquire weapons and explosives will also remain vulnerable to detection.

While Nasir al-Wahayshi’s appeal for aspiring jihadists to avoid contacting franchise groups and traveling overseas in search of training is sound, it has been difficult for jihadists to follow. This is evidenced by the fact that we have seen very few plots or attacks in which the planners were true lone wolves who had absolutely no contact with outside jihadists — or with government agents they believed to be jihadists. While the leaderless resistance model can be difficult for law enforcement to guard against, its downside for jihadists is that it takes a unique type of individual to be a true and effective lone wolf.

Since we believe most plots in the United States and Europe in 2012 will involve grassroots jihadists, we also believe that soft targets — public gatherings and mass transportation hubs, for example — will continue to be the most popular target set. In places like Pakistan, Yemen, Afghanistan and Somalia, we believe hotels and housing compounds will be more attractive targets than U.S. embassies or consulates, which are much more difficult to successfully attack. With a thwarted plot against a cartoonist involved in the Mohammed cartoon controversy taking place as recently as September, we do not see any end to that threat.

We predict that al-Wahayshi’s advice will go unheeded but that grassroots jihadists in the United States will continue to plan and conduct simple attacks using firearms and other weapons. We do not foresee difficult and elaborate attacks employing explosives.

…

Proving the threat still remains, there are forecasts for many more countries and regions, covering at least 20 nations. Finishing up:

Conclusion

While the al Qaeda core has been marginalized and heavily damaged, the ideology of jihadism continues to survive and win new converts, albeit at progressively lower numbers. As long as this ideology is able to spread, the war its adherents are waging will continue. While jihadists do not pose a strategic geopolitical threat on a global, regional or national scale, they nonetheless are capable of killing scores of people. For that reason alone, the jihadist threat remains in 2012.